Talking recklessly, but Philippine President Duterte back was beneficial for both China and the United States, related to the South China Sea issue.
That is the statement of American scholars Graeme Dobell, in the article published on the website The Strategist day 10/09/2016 According to Graeme Dobell scholars, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to "spin" on the Chinese side Beijing has provided all kinds of "fruits": the possibility of bilateral agreements in the South China Sea to the opportunity to lose balanced policy of "rebalancing" of the US in Asia-Pacific.
Benefits that President Duterte gives the US is temporary, but it can offset the serious damage he caused to the US-Philippine alliance. Mr. Duterte gave Washington a great gift is not letting the crisis in the South China Sea. Invisible, anti-American statements and reconciliation with China's President Philippines Duterte to work "cool down" tensions in the South China Sea which has been pushed to extreme levels. Indeed, China and the United States currently is in a dilemma in the South China Sea. It is "homophobic" by President Duterte did cool down the South China Sea issue, although "quite dangerous in international relations," according to The Economist. The President Duterte "spin" to China has created a moments' pause important "dangerous chain of events. At the time of volatile South China Sea, the Philippine president was considered "rude" accidentally do this cooling South China Sea issue after the judgment of the Hague Court of Arbitration.
Many analysts have predicted that China will react strongly, after being "snubbed" by the ruling of the Arbitration Court of the Hague. They are concerned about how China could build on and building illegal military bases on the Scarborough Shoal, which China was seized after a confrontation at sea with the Philippine Navy in 2012. After the verdict of the Hague, Arbitration Court rejected most absurd claims of the East China Sea, the US scholars Bonnie Glaser said: "Xi has lost face in the South China Sea and
will be hard to Chinese reaction stop. I waited for a very fierce response from the Chinese side because it was lost on most of the points (in the claim of the Philippines). "The South China Morning Post reported that Beijing could start work "accretion" unauthorized Scarborough Shoal in the period after the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China, which ended a few days 5/9 and before the US presidential election on April 11.8.2016. 3/2016 month, US President Barack Obama has drawn "red line" around the Scarborough Shoal and warned President Xi Jinping of "serious consequences" if China starts building up and building muscle on the basis of disputed Shoals. Perhaps, the "red line" of Obama to take effect. Or perhaps Beijing has decided not to "almost always" presidents "lame duck" in the US election campaign? But most likely, President Rodrigo Duterte Philippines reckless speech has "changed the game".
Immediate benefits for President Obama is the "red line" which he painted in the South China Sea without China surpassed. This will prevent the Obama must confront China in the few remaining days of the American presidency. Indeed, if China started the project to create a large artificial island on the Scarborough Shoal, whether the United States has sided with Philippine President Duterte in word and action? Does Washington have clashed venture with China as a leader of the Philippines said it would "break up with America" and cursing Obama "hell"? President Obama may accept benefits he brings Duterte is to avoid a confrontation with China in the South China Sea and leave the next president (probably Hillary Clinton) the duty to argue with General Duterte system, people can circumvent the US-Philippine alliance.
If Donald Trump to make the next US president, he would be happy to say "he (Duterte) and go to hell" and claimed the US-Philippines is a bankrupt enterprise. Reaction his type of human trafficking Trump will be very "right taste" President Duterte because he is desperately keen to "do business" with China.
Who served as US ambassador to Manila in the period 1989-1994, a time when the US was forced to withdraw from the naval base at Subic Bay, Mr. Mack Williams explains, "Duterte plan" a reasonable way than the incumbent President Barack Obama. Former Ambassador Mack Williams lists the key factors which will affect the way that President Duterte handle South China Sea dispute and especially in relations with China:
- The Philippines is aware that any military confrontation would be a disaster for them, especially when the United States have used the country as forward operating bases.
- President Duterte is not suing the Chinese people to the International Court of Arbitration, and he wanted to handle this verdict extreme caution.
- The Philippines interested in fishing rights and oil and gas potential in the area of the dispute over the international freedom of navigation. - Relationship-China Philippines capital is long and complex, with the Chinese dominated the business sector of this country, often disguised by the name is not the same name in Chinese.
Graeme Dobell scholars conclude: Philippine President Duterte wants a lot in China and sees the two sides need each other. China has been extremely disappointing to not be able to turn economic power into clear strategic interests in Southeast Asia. The covering of artificial islands and the illegal construction of the base in the Spratly Islands can be seen as an expression of anger and frustration as well as confirming the power:
China is growing strongly and is "the head wolf "here, but do not get the respect! President Duterte is giving China the opportunity to make bilateral agreements in the South China Sea and the weakening of the US alliance structure. Finally, China will get the change that the country has always wanted. It's using the power of money to create strategic power in the region.
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